Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
